The Carrington Event of 1859 was the largest recorded solar storm in history, resulting in spectacular auroras and disruptions to telegraph systems. In today’s digitally connected world, the potential damage from a solar storm of such magnitude would be exponentially greater. A coronal mass ejection (CME), an eruption of magnetized plasma from the Sun’s corona, is responsible for such solar storms, and the potential for a similar event in the future has experts concerned about the consequences for society and the global economy.

The world’s reliance on electricity and digital technology has made us vulnerable to the effects of solar storms. Experts estimate that a Carrington-level event, if it were to occur today, could lead to widespread power outages, affecting critical services such as telecommunications, financial markets, emergency and hospital services, and transportation. A 2013 study by Lloyd’s of London estimated that such an event could lead to up to $2.6 trillion in lost revenue for the North American power industry alone. Furthermore, global blackouts could last for years, as the event could simultaneously damage multiple extra-high-voltage transformers that are difficult to replace. A 2017 study in the journal Space Weather estimated that in the most extreme blackout scenario, daily domestic economic losses in the U.S. could total $41.5 billion, with an additional $7 billion loss via international supply chain disruptions​.

While the Carrington Event was a powerful solar storm, evidence suggests that even stronger “superflares” are possible. Studies using NASA’s Kepler space telescope have detected superflares in other stars that pack up to 100 times more energy than the Carrington Event. Scientists have also detected ancient evidence of radioactive carbon-14 atoms, indicating past superflares that were significantly stronger than the Carrington Event​.

Given the potential for severe economic and societal impacts, it is vital for businesses and governments to take proactive measures to mitigate the risks posed by future CMEs. As we discuss the threat of CMEs, we will explore the steps that can be taken to safeguard critical infrastructure and electronic equipment, as well as strategies for minimizing potential disruptions to services and commerce.

Although the exact timing of the next Carrington-level event or superflare is uncertain, experts suggest that superflares about 10 times more energetic than the Carrington Event may occur about every 3,000 years, and ones about 100 times more energetic may occur about every 6,000 years. Given the consequences at stake, it is imperative that we remain vigilant and take steps to prepare for the potential impact of such an event​.

As you navigate the complexities of business management, you already understand the significance of risk preparedness and the need to address a variety of challenges. However, one often overlooked but critical risk is the potential impact of a coronal mass ejection (CME) on your organization. CMEs, which are powerful eruptions of plasma and magnetic fields from the Sun’s corona, pose a unique threat when directed towards our planet. The interaction of these solar emissions with Earth’s magnetosphere can result in extensive disruptions to both electrical and communication systems. In a modern world where business operations are heavily reliant on digital technology and global connectivity, the consequences of a CME event are far-reaching and demand careful consideration for effective risk mitigation.

In this article, we will guide you through the essential steps to prepare your business for a CME event, ensuring that you can minimize disruptions, protect your assets, and maintain continuity of operations.

Understanding the Risk and Preparing Your Business for a CME

  1. Assess your business’s vulnerability to a CME event: the first step in preparing for a CME is to understand how your business could be affected. The primary concern is the potential for widespread power outages and disruptions to communication systems. By identifying the most vulnerable aspects of your business, you can begin to develop strategies to mitigate potential disruptions. Consider the following questions:
    • How dependent is your business on electricity and telecommunications?
    • What critical systems and processes rely on these services?
    • Can your business operate without these systems for an extended period?
  1. Develop a comprehensive CME response plan: a well-thought-out response plan is crucial to ensure your business can quickly and effectively respond to a CME event. This plan should address the following key areas:
    • Communication: Establish clear lines of communication to keep employees, customers, and suppliers informed during an event. Consider alternative communication methods, such as satellite phones or two-way radios, which may be less affected by a CME.
    • Power backup: Identify backup power sources, such as generators or uninterruptible power supply (UPS) systems, to keep critical systems running during an outage.
    • Data protection: Implement robust data backup and recovery processes to safeguard essential information and minimize data loss.
    • Supply chain management: Assess the potential impact of a CME on your suppliers and develop contingency plans to maintain access to critical goods and services.
    • Employee safety: Outline steps to ensure the safety of your employees during a CME, including provisions for emergency shelter, food, and water supplies.
  1. Invest in surge protection and hardening measures

CME events can generate powerful geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), which can cause voltage fluctuations and damage electrical equipment. To protect your business’s infrastructure, consider investing in:

    • Surge protectors: Install surge protectors on critical electrical devices to safeguard them from voltage spikes.
    • Shielding: Shield sensitive electronic equipment with appropriate enclosures or Faraday cages to protect against electromagnetic radiation.
    • Hardened hardware: Replace vulnerable electronic components with hardened alternatives designed to withstand extreme conditions.
  1. Test and update your response plan regularly:

A CME response plan is only effective if it is up-to-date and properly implemented. Conduct regular tests and drills to ensure that your employees are familiar with the plan and can execute it efficiently during a crisis. Additionally, review and update your plan as needed to account for changes in your business operations or advances in CME forecasting and mitigation technology.

  1. Stay informed about CME events and forecasts:
    • CME events can be difficult to predict, but advances in space weather forecasting are improving our ability to anticipate these events and provide warnings. Stay informed about potential
    • CME events by monitoring space weather forecasts from organizations such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) or the European Space Agency (ESA). This information will help you stay ahead of potential disruptions and ensure that your business is ready to

Long-term Strategies and Recovery from a CME Event

  1. Diversify your business operations: one way to reduce your business’s vulnerability to a CME is to diversify your operations. This could involve expanding into different markets, offering a wider range of products or services, or establishing multiple locations. By doing so, you can help to mitigate the risk of a single event causing a significant disruption to your entire business.
  1. Establish partnerships with other businesses and organizations: building strong relationships with other businesses and organizations in your industry can help to create a support network during a CME event. Collaborating with partners can provide access to resources, expertise, and additional capacity during a crisis. Consider forming partnerships with companies that offer complementary products or services or that have a similar customer base.
  1. Develop a business continuity plan (BCP): a comprehensive BCP is essential for ensuring that your business can maintain its operations during and after a CME event. This plan should outline strategies for managing disruptions to critical systems, processes, and personnel. Key components of a BCP include:
    • Identifying critical business functions and establishing priorities for recovery
    • Defining roles and responsibilities for personnel during a crisis
    • Developing recovery strategies for each critical business function
    • Establishing a process for updating and maintaining the BCP
  1. Train and educate employees on CME risks and response plans: your employees are a crucial asset in managing a CME event. Ensure that they are well-informed about the risks associated with CMEs and are familiar with your company’s response plans. Regular training and education sessions can help to build a culture of preparedness and resilience within your organization.
  1. Evaluate insurance options and financial planning for CME events: the financial impacts of a CME event can be significant. It is essential to evaluate your business’s insurance coverage and financial planning to ensure that you have adequate resources to manage potential disruptions. This may involve:
    • Reviewing your current insurance policies to ensure that they provide coverage for CME-related damages and losses
    • Developing a financial contingency plan to manage cash flow during a crisis
    • Establishing a reserve fund or line of credit to cover unexpected expenses

Conclusion

While CME events can be unpredictable and potentially damaging, businesses that take proactive steps to prepare for these events can significantly reduce their risks and improve their resilience. By understanding the potential impacts of a CME on your business, developing a comprehensive response plan, and implementing long-term strategies for resilience, you can ensure that your business is well-equipped to manage the challenges posed by these powerful solar phenomena.

With the steps outlined in this article, you will be well on your way to safeguarding your business against the potentially catastrophic effects of a coronal mass ejection. By planning and preparing in advance, you can not only protect your assets but also maintain your business’s continuity and reputation in the face of a CME event.

References:

  1. https://www.livescience.com/carrington-event
  2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection